At the beginning of 2016, the world economy is unsettled. Stock markets are volatile and investors are worried.
Since recession of 2008, the maritime industry has had to restructure. A period of uncertainty and instability triggered by the rise of the U.S. dollar, slowing Chinese economy, collapse of oil prices, slowdown of the European economy and political uncertainties has ensued.
This analysis illustrates that the trends of the shipping industry are positive and encouraging. They predict that growth will remain higher than that of the world economy and will still continue and business opportunities will continue to present themselves. Three major trends are described: one, the volatility of demand, another related to the the world economy, and a third, maritime supply and public investments.
TREND 1: High volatility of demand
This first trend is due to globalisation which has increased the variability of risk. Such a ‘butterfly effect’, a simple modification of the conditions of the market in a specific area of the globe – for example in Asia – can have an impact on the supply and demand in different locations – for example in the United-States. This situation leads to less predictable demand for transport.
The fact remains that the maritime industry is, more than any other type of industry, sensitive to all forms of external disturbances, and particularly to international situations. These external variables over which the industry has no control, affect the ability of the industry to plan and structure itself to develop in the long term. Thus, changes in rates of Exchange and interest rates, changes in Government legislation, stock market declines can, in a single year, have important repercussions on the request and on the volume of the substances carried. Other external and unpredictable factors in the industry are equally important and … Lire la suite