Tag: risk

JANUARY 2017, MARITIME REVIEW, TRENDS FOR 2017

conjoncture 2017

INTRODUCTION

As 2016, three trends will describe maritime industry in 2017: 1-an increased volatility of demand 2- a sustained but uneven global recovery 3- a restructuring of the maritime supply.  This text presents an analysis of these trends.

1- An increased volatility of demand

1.1 New external factors

Variability of the risk makes demand for transport less predictable. In 2016, several factors triggered this instability, including fluctuations of exchange rates, slowdown of Chinese economy, lower oil prices and difficulties of the European economy.

In 2017, recovering of American and European economies is well engaged. Despite a slight slowdown of the GDP of the United States in the last quarter of 2016, one can anticipate a still dominant position of the U.S. dollar will continue in 2017.  The impact of a strong U.S. dollar boost U.S. imports.

In return, other external event to the industry are related to international political situation. The intention of Donald Trump to review several agreements of free-trade (NAFTA and the transpacific Partnership), the vote on the Brexit inducing the exit of Great Britain of the European Union are some examples.  The rise of protectionism could have the effect of undermining the global economic recovery.

In the sector of maritime transport, two important events occurred in 2016, the bankruptcy of Hanjin Shipping and the opening of the new Panama Canal.

Some believe that Hanjin Shipping’s bankrupcy it is precursor to a major crisis (Gerry Wang, CEO de Seaspan) in the industry. Hanjin’s situation is not unique and other maritime companies are also in difficulty. Because, recessions are the result of a chain process, if other bankruptcies were to happen, the effects could be devastating on the financial institutions, the clients or suppliers and shippers. It could even slowdown entire world economic activity.

In the case of the … Lire la suite