Tag: GNP

The real impact of CETA: Global Economic and Commercial Agreement  

CETA

CETA WILL GIVE ACCESS TO 500 MILLION CONSUMERS

The Government of Canada claims that the Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) will give Canadian companies preferential access to 500 million European consumers, a market evaluated at $ 18 trillion[1] [2]. Accordingly, bilateral trade would increase by 20 percent and would increase Canada’s GDP by $ 12 billion a year. This would create nearly 80,000 new jobs and increase the average Canadian household’s annual income by $ 1,000. [3]

Are these predictions realistic ? What are the business opportunities for transport and maritime companies? In order to answer these questions, this text analyses the figures of Canada’s international trade with the rest of the world and the European Union. It also attempts to estimate the impact of this agreement on transportation and the Canadian marine industry.

1-SUMMERY OF THE AGREEMENT

The CETA is considered a modern and innovative agreement because it covers a wider field of activity and is more permissive than other free trade agreements, such as the WTO’s General Agreement on Trade and Services (GATS) or NAFTA. The main provisions concern directly or indirectly the maritime sector.

1.1 Non-discriminatory rules for the goods, services and public procurement sectors

The rules of the “national treatment” and the “most favored nation” are maintained for both the goods sector and the service sector. The first rule requires equal treatment between foreign firms and local businesses. The second rule provides that the signatory parties must give each other at least the same advantages as they would accord to a third State.

CETA also provides that Parties may not adopt or maintain measures to limit the number of enterprises, the value of transactions, the number of transactions or natural persons, and the participation of foreign capital.

1.2 Elimination of tariffs and

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JANUARY 2017, MARITIME REVIEW, TRENDS FOR 2017

conjoncture 2017

INTRODUCTION

As 2016, three trends will describe maritime industry in 2017: 1-an increased volatility of demand 2- a sustained but uneven global recovery 3- a restructuring of the maritime supply.  This text presents an analysis of these trends.

1- An increased volatility of demand

1.1 New external factors

Variability of the risk makes demand for transport less predictable. In 2016, several factors triggered this instability, including fluctuations of exchange rates, slowdown of Chinese economy, lower oil prices and difficulties of the European economy.

In 2017, recovering of American and European economies is well engaged. Despite a slight slowdown of the GDP of the United States in the last quarter of 2016, one can anticipate a still dominant position of the U.S. dollar will continue in 2017.  The impact of a strong U.S. dollar boost U.S. imports.

In return, other external event to the industry are related to international political situation. The intention of Donald Trump to review several agreements of free-trade (NAFTA and the transpacific Partnership), the vote on the Brexit inducing the exit of Great Britain of the European Union are some examples.  The rise of protectionism could have the effect of undermining the global economic recovery.

In the sector of maritime transport, two important events occurred in 2016, the bankruptcy of Hanjin Shipping and the opening of the new Panama Canal.

Some believe that Hanjin Shipping’s bankrupcy it is precursor to a major crisis (Gerry Wang, CEO de Seaspan) in the industry. Hanjin’s situation is not unique and other maritime companies are also in difficulty. Because, recessions are the result of a chain process, if other bankruptcies were to happen, the effects could be devastating on the financial institutions, the clients or suppliers and shippers. It could even slowdown entire world economic activity.

In the case of the … Lire la suite