Tag: forecast

JANUARY 2017, MARITIME REVIEW, TRENDS FOR 2017

conjoncture 2017

INTRODUCTION

As 2016, three trends will describe maritime industry in 2017: 1-an increased volatility of demand 2- a sustained but uneven global recovery 3- a restructuring of the maritime supply.  This text presents an analysis of these trends.

1- An increased volatility of demand

1.1 New external factors

Variability of the risk makes demand for transport less predictable. In 2016, several factors triggered this instability, including fluctuations of exchange rates, slowdown of Chinese economy, lower oil prices and difficulties of the European economy.

In 2017, recovering of American and European economies is well engaged. Despite a slight slowdown of the GDP of the United States in the last quarter of 2016, one can anticipate a still dominant position of the U.S. dollar will continue in 2017.  The impact of a strong U.S. dollar boost U.S. imports.

In return, other external event to the industry are related to international political situation. The intention of Donald Trump to review several agreements of free-trade (NAFTA and the transpacific Partnership), the vote on the Brexit inducing the exit of Great Britain of the European Union are some examples.  The rise of protectionism could have the effect of undermining the global economic recovery.

In the sector of maritime transport, two important events occurred in 2016, the bankruptcy of Hanjin Shipping and the opening of the new Panama Canal.

Some believe that Hanjin Shipping’s bankrupcy it is precursor to a major crisis (Gerry Wang, CEO de Seaspan) in the industry. Hanjin’s situation is not unique and other maritime companies are also in difficulty. Because, recessions are the result of a chain process, if other bankruptcies were to happen, the effects could be devastating on the financial institutions, the clients or suppliers and shippers. It could even slowdown entire world economic activity.

In the case of the … Lire la suite

THREE MARITIME TRENDS FOR 2016

INTRODUCTION

At the beginning of 2016, the world economy is unsettled.  Stock markets are volatile and investors are worried.

Since recession of 2008, the maritime industry has had to restructure. A period of uncertainty and instability triggered by the rise of the U.S. dollar, slowing Chinese economy, collapse of oil prices, slowdown of the European economy and political uncertainties has ensued.

This analysis illustrates that the trends of the shipping industry are positive and encouraging. They predict that growth will remain higher than that of the world economy and will still continue and business opportunities will continue to present themselves. Three major trends are described: one,  the volatility of demand, another related to the the world economy, and a third,  maritime supply and public investments.

TREND 1: High volatility of demand

This first trend is due to globalisation which has increased the variability of risk. Such a ‘butterfly effect’, a simple modification of the conditions of the market in a specific area of the globe – for example in Asia – can have an impact on the supply and demand in different locations – for example in the United-States. This situation leads to less predictable demand for transport.

The fact remains that the maritime industry is, more than any other type of industry, sensitive to all forms of external disturbances, and particularly to international situations. These external variables over which the industry has no control, affect the ability of the industry to plan and structure itself to develop in the long term. Thus, changes in rates of Exchange and interest rates, changes in Government legislation, stock market declines can, in a single year, have important repercussions on the request and on the volume of the substances carried. Other external and unpredictable factors in the industry are equally important and … Lire la suite