Category: Conjoncture

ECONOMIC REVIEW AND MARINE PERSPECTIVE FOR 2019

The state of the world economy

Major international economic organizations such as OECD or IMF have predicted a decline in growth of the global economy in 2019. According to them, economy has already reached its peak and will decelerate in 2019. OECD forecasts growth of 3.3% and 3.4% in 2019 and 2020 , compared to 3.6% in 2018. The following table gives OECD’s projections in different regions of the world.

OEDC economic perspectives and forecast, March 2019

Deflated Gross  Interior Product, growth in %

d

Régions 2018 2019 2020
world 3,6 3,3 3,4
G20 3,8 3,5 3,7
Canada 1,8 1,5
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COULD CHINA WIN THE BATTLE OF THE NORTH POLE?

passage nord-ouest

ABOUT THE NORTHWEST PASSAGE

Franklin Expedition

History has not forgotten the famous Franklin expedition of 1845. He was desperately seeking the shortest route between Asia and Europe. Like many explorers, he learned that northern Canada is difficult and risky because of cold and ice, because of risks of accidents, hunger and disease. Franklin died with his men, prisoners of an immense territory covered with ice. If they had survived and succeeded, they would have been the heroes of an era, like many European explorers. The distance between Asia and Europe, via the Arctic, is almost twice as short as that … Lire la suite

2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW AND TREND OF MARITIME ECONOMY

conjoncture 2018

1-The world economy in 2018

The situation in brief

The year 2018 paves the way for growth for all the major economic blocs of the world that are America, Asia, and Europe. The large debt that has held back the economic recovery of several countries since the recession of 2008 still leaves some traces but the situation is now considered less problematic beacause of favorable global financial environment and recovery in advanced countries. The table below shows the evolution of global growth by block size since 2016. It also presents the forecasts of the World Bank and the International Monetary … Lire la suite

JONES ACT, A MISSED OPPORTUNITY FOR  NAFTA

Loi Jones

United States (US) represents one fifth of the world economy (GDP of 17 400 billion $). It is considered the world’s largest economy. It also counts for 19 924 kilometers of marine coastline, 6 000 kilometers of river length and  250 000 km2 area of its Great Lakes. [1]  With all these assets, why doesn’t it hold  shipping capacity in the world  ?  The  US has become international success in many fields such as automotive, information technology, aeronautics , chemistry, and culture sectors.  But, why not in maritime sector ?

Those following figures illustrate the paradox.  In 2015, among the … Lire la suite

WILL TRUMP’S ENERGY POLICY STOP DEVELOPING RENEWABLE ENERGY ?

1-Significant efforts to reduce greenhouse gases around the world

For several years, significant efforts have been made to promote renewable energies. It has been arduous and time-consuming to implement commitments of the Kyoto Protocol and the Conferences of the Parties (COP) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Almost 20 years were needed to develop concerted action on this issue among the world’s major countries. 1

The Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21) is historic because it engages 195 countries to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and to stabilize climate warming due to human activities to less than 2 ° C … Lire la suite

JANUARY 2017, MARITIME REVIEW, TRENDS FOR 2017

conjoncture 2017

INTRODUCTION

As 2016, three trends will describe maritime industry in 2017: 1-an increased volatility of demand 2- a sustained but uneven global recovery 3- a restructuring of the maritime supply.  This text presents an analysis of these trends.

1- An increased volatility of demand

1.1 New external factors

Variability of the risk makes demand for transport less predictable. In 2016, several factors triggered this instability, including fluctuations of exchange rates, slowdown of Chinese economy, lower oil prices and difficulties of the European economy.

In 2017, recovering of American and European economies is well engaged. Despite a slight slowdown of the … Lire la suite

JUNE 2016, OVERVIEW OF THE CANADIAN MARITIME ENVIRONMENT

By 2015, a lower demand for natural resources has had a considerable impact on the volume of cargo handled at Canadian port authorities.  There is a slowdown in activities in almost all port sites. However, this decrease has been more pronounced for 2016.

To understand the differences and determine cause of the declines, we will present an analysis of the activities of three Canadian port authorities; those of Vancouver, Montreal and Quebec City. In this regard, a composite indices measuring the Canadian port activity have been developed. These indices are based on trends in the international trade of  over 50 … Lire la suite

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